December Snow
By Mark Lahtinen
January 2, 2003
How This Ski Season Shapes Up (or doesn't) So Far...
December Dec Mean Following Jan Dec-Feb Season ~Ski Season
YEAR Snow Precip Temp Snow Prec Snow Snow Length*
El Nino 1913-14 Trace 0.05" 30.5F 7.7" 0.83 14.5" 22.5" ~8 wks.
El Nino 1957-58 2.2" 0.24 25.3 2.4 0.21 5.8 21.2 ~2 wks.
La Nada 1980-81 2.8 0.24 19.8 4.6 0.3 8.3 21.1 ~2 wks.
El Nino 1997-98 3.3 0.31 26.9 20.4 1.64 24.8 45 ~ 6-7 wks.
La Nina 1998-99 3.1 0.46 24.6 33.1 2.67 40.4 56.5 ~ 6-7 wks.
La Nina 1999-00 7.3 0.33 25.6 18.2 0.9 33.2 36.2 ~ 6-7 wks.
La Nina 2000-01 30.2 1.23 7.6 9.4 1.21 56.1 75.8 ~ 14 wks.
La Nada 2001-02 8 0.74 27.6 9.5 0.46 20.6 66 ~8 wks.
El Nino 2002-03 ~3 0.21 26.4 ?? ?? ?? ?? ??
Average 8.8 0.93 19.4 10.2 0.87 26.7 45.7 ~12 wks.
(117 yrs.)
Note - * Ski season length is a 'guess-timate'
based on natural trail snow and does not include lake skiing/snow
or artificial snow. It also can vary by location as all areas
get and hold snow differently depending on topography, shade,
grooming etc.
1913-14 and 1957-58 are possible analog years for this winter based on comparable temperature and precipitation
events leading up to December. 1980-81 was the last year with less snow in December than 2002.
1997-98 was the last El Nino year. 1998-99 to 2001-02 are the last few years for comparison.
Mike Lynch on 'CCO says this is the least snowiest December
since 1980. In fact, the 0.21" of precipitation we've
had this December will tie 1958 for 10th driest. I didn't
go back and dig out my training logs for '80-'81 but '81 was
the year the Birkie was postponed 2 weeks. The driest December
was 1943 with a trace of precip. followed by 1913 at .05".
The least December snow recorded was a trace in 1943 and 1913.
I included 1913 and 1957 as they are similar years to now.
1997 is included because it was the last El Nino.
December 1997 & 1998 had sparse snow as well - again
I didn't look at my training logs. The January recovery was
good in '98 & '99 though, but December ski/snow time was
lost. Temperature-wise December 2002 may end up the 10th warmest
on record. The average December temp so far is 26.4F which
is in between 1941 - 26.2 and 1997 - 26.9. The National Weather
Service, again according to Mike Lynch, is calling for temperatures
much above normal through March - not good for snow. Precipitation
is indeterminate apparently. Another weather fact from Mr.
Lynch is that this is the 2nd December in a row without a
below zero F temp, which hasn't happened before, and in the
last 22 months we've only had 4 hours below 0 F.
From what I've seen of the weather records we've experienced
the most snow in the ~110 years of MN weather records in the
1970's -1980's primarily and that the snow totals look to
be generally trending/cycling down for the next 10-20-30 years
(looks similar to peak snowfalls in early 1910's which declined
through the 50's or so). We'll still have good years/spikes
but it appears the slope of the year-to-year snow totals may
go down.The snow peak totals from the 70's-80's are also higher
than in the 1910's so even with a decline, if the slope is
similar, we will still have a fair amount of snow on the average.
The 70's to 80's snows are about 20-25% more than in the 1910's
- ~35-40" vs. ~25-30" for the December through February
snows.
My disclaimer is I'm not a weatherman and haven't even taken
Meteorology 101 but.....
I did come in third in the work football season pool!
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